Beer and Crime: Evidence from Germany, 1882-1913

We study the causal effect of beer on crime based on unique panel data from Germany between 1882 to 1913. Using exogenous variation in spring barley yield – a key input in beer production – we identify a quantitatively and qualitatively significant effect of beer on violent crimes. The finding is largely driven by an increase in simple and aggravated assaults. Preliminary results further indicate no effect of beer consumption on property crimes. A complementary empirical design, exploiting a staggered beer tax reform, corroborates these findings.